A Sword Dance on the Cliff's Edge

Donald Trump, the U.S. President, has consistently shown himself to be a master of creating contradictions and playing with expectations. His recent statements about Iran are no exception. While reluctantly signing a new sanctions memo against Iran, he speaks of his desire for a "great deal" with Tehran. But does this behavioral dichotomy stem from his confusion in decision-making regarding Iran, or does it indicate a calculated strategy to contain and steer Iran towards America's desired objectives?

What is evident in Trump's behavior is the pursuit of maximum gain and minimization of risk. Through pressure and threats, he attempts to bring others to the negotiating table where he can then demand more concessions. After signing maximum sanctions against Iran and following his meeting with Netanyahu, he addressed Iran in a press conference, saying: "I say this to Iran, which is listening carefully: I would love to be able to have a great deal, a deal that you can go and live your lives and prosper. You will prosper. The Iranian people are wonderful, hardworking, beautiful, and truly an incredible group of people. But I hated doing this [reimposing sanctions], I truly want peace, and I hope we can achieve that. I'm not setting any limits, but there's one thing they cannot have: they must not have nuclear weapons. That's very easy."

In his remarks, Trump used the phrase "hope" five times, an expression indicative of uncertainty and doubt. It's as if he is confused about adopting a low-risk approach towards Iran. Indeed, when previously questioned about Iran, he never gave a clear answer. After signing the sanctions against Iran, he says in short, fragmented sentences: "I hope I sign it, but I hope we don't have to use it much." These words show his hesitation even up to the moment of signing: "I hope I sign it." But where does this hesitation originate?

Trump is intensely concerned with his public image. He wishes to be known as strong, decisive, and capable of solving complex problems. This significantly influences his decisions. His thirst to be seen as the most powerful person in the world is such that it might lead him to prioritize personal interests over national ones, as seen in his decision on import tariffs to the U.S., which he signed despite admitting it could negatively impact American lives.

On the other hand, he wants to be seen as a peacemaker, eager for an agreement with Iran, to the extent that he considers himself deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. Hence, he is keen to resolve U.S.-Iran differences and register it as a memorable achievement in his legacy. While expressing dissatisfaction with signing the sanctions memo, he also emphasizes the need for maximum pressure on Iran. In subsequent sentences, he voices his concern: "We will see if we can reach an agreement with Iran where everyone can live together. Maybe it's possible, maybe it's not."

An analysis of his subsequent sentences and rhetoric shows that Trump does not want to appear weak in front of Iran. However, the dilemma of making a decisive decision versus the fear of not reaching an agreement has left him perplexed. He says: "So I'm signing this, and I'm not happy about doing it, but I really don't have much choice, because we have to be strong and decisive." He then voices his dream aloud: "It would be great if we could have a Middle East, and perhaps a world, completely at peace."

But what is the reason for all this hesitation and concern? The unpredictability of Iranian officials in decision-making and their gameplay in foreign policy is the best answer to this question. Just as Trump wants to project himself as strong, Iranian officials have shown they do not yield to force and threats, even at the cost of sanctions and damage to domestic popularity. They too have repeatedly stated their willingness to negotiate with the U.S., but not through the language of coercion and humiliation. This very approach by Iranian officials, a sort of ingrained trait in Iranians, might cause the repeated imposition of maximum sanctions to be perceived as an act of force and threat, deterring them from negotiation and compelling them into unpredictable plays. The perception of exerting force and power is precisely what Trump wants to project: being strong and decisive! But his hesitation also begins here. He is worried that by adopting this approach, he might turn his dream into a nightmare. With Iran potentially withdrawing from negotiations, his peacemaking image and the achievement of a lasting deal with Iran could become unattainable, and his presidency could pass while he is anxious about war in the Middle East and worried about disrupting the tranquility of the global economy, which is affected by regional oil exports. This is what made Trump's face appear hesitant when signing the repeat sanctions against Iran.

For Iranian officials, assessing Trump's sincerity is also difficult. He has repeatedly adopted contradictory stances and has a history of disrupting the JCPOA understanding. However, the possibility of negotiating with him cannot be entirely dismissed. Trump is a pragmatist and may feel that negotiating with Iran is in his interest. "Trump's hesitation" is merely an ace for Iran, not a full hand for adventurous play. As much as Trump wants to be seen as decisive and strong, he can change his stance with a direct phone call, as he did several times during his previous presidential term. In any case, it is now Iran's move. It remains to be seen whether they will prolong the game with pawns or move the knight to secure the king and castle.