An Early Admission

Recent international developments, from shifts in major power alignments to the unexpected rapprochement of yesterday's enemies, have revealed both hidden and overt aspects of global relations. Amidst this, what is most noteworthy is a convergence of interests seemingly forming between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Benjamin Netanyahu. Evidence suggests Trump, aiming to end the Ukraine war, has openly sided with Russia, even voting against UN resolutions targeting the country.

This sudden shift has upended previous equations and raises serious questions about the future world order and the position of regional countries, including Iran. Analysts believe Trump has expectations for this closeness to Putin, and it appears one of the most significant is Russia's cooperation in containing what is termed the "Iran threat." The recent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Tehran reinforces the hypothesis that Moscow is playing a mediating role between Tehran and Washington, under circumstances where the scales are heavily tipped in America's favor. In this context, what is concerning for Iran is the possibility of being positioned as the "victim" of a grand bargain.

It seems Russia, to reciprocate Trump's favor regarding Ukraine, is willing to use its influence in Iran to advance U.S. objectives, particularly concerning the nuclear file. This situation is reminiscent of bitter past experiences where Reformist governments in Iran, at critical negotiation junctures, faced domestic and foreign pressures and were compelled to accept agreements that later faced harsh criticism from hardliners.

The Pezeshkian government, in the current circumstances, will find itself in a more difficult position. On one hand, it is compelled to negotiate to alleviate economic and international pressures, and on the other, it will face staunch domestic opposition from the hardline faction. Any concession made by this government, even if unavoidable, could be recorded in history as a shameful negotiation and a weakness of the Reformist government. This is despite the fact that the Pezeshkian government represents the entirety of the system and is tasked with a mission determined by the establishment.

In this scenario, Reformists, as a political faction, will be the big losers. Those who supported Pezeshkian to prevent Jalili and hardline forces from taking power now face a situation where they must bear responsibility for tough and likely unpleasant decisions for which they are not the cause, only the implementers. In this situation, it would have been better if Jalili or any other figure from the opposing faction had taken the helm of the government and shouldered the heavy burden of these negotiations and their potentially dire consequences. Now, in the event of any concessions or even military conflicts, the shame and damage will be attributed to the Reformists. This is while Rouhani persistently pursued negotiations to resolve the country's issues, but Pezeshkian seems hesitant in this regard and isn't fully committing. Although no one imagined Putin and Trump would one day be on the same side, one should have taken the fate of the JCPOA and what happened to Rouhani and Zarif seriously and hesitated more before seeking what is called the presidency!

While not the main topic of this discussion, it must be acknowledged that the Trump-Putin convergence was also a cold shower for the Iranian opposition abroad. They can no longer rely on Trump as a dependable supporter, nor can they criticize Putin as an enemy. The only winners in this arena are the Russophiles, who are playing their roles according to plan. It's not unlikely they'll later be grandly remembered, perhaps like Kuchik Jangali, and have their statues erected in city squares.

However, the important question that must now be answered is whether, in the current circumstances, there is any other path besides negotiation and striving to prevent an escalation of tensions. The answers to these questions and the decisions made will profoundly affect Iran's future. Amidst this, vigilance and making prudent, realistic decisions seem more necessary than ever. But whatever the outcome, the heavy hammer of opportunities foolishly lost in the past will come crashing down on us.

Seda Weekly | March 01, 2025